Ukraine’s GDP will fall by 33% in 2022 and grow by 4% in 2023, according to a forecast by the international rating agency Fitch Ratings, as reported by FinClub.
According to the forecast, inflation is expected to reach 30% by the end of 2022, and the average rate in 2023 could be 20%. The current account surplus this year could reach 2% of GDP, while next year there will be a deficit of 1.6%.
The agency forecasts that Ukraine’s government budget deficit will amount to 29.1% of GDP in 2022 and 22.4% of GDP in 2023. As a result, public debt could rise by 48 percentage points in 2022 to 92% of GDP and reach 103% of GDP by the end of 2023. This does not include state-guaranteed debt, which amounts to about 8% of GDP.
As a reminder, the international rating agency Fitch downgraded Ukraine’s long-term issuer default rating from CCC to C (pre-default). The agency does not rule out a further downgrade to RD (restricted default).