The National Bank of Ukraine has again left the discount rate unchanged at 15% per annum. The regulator attributes this decision to the renewed rise in inflation: in March, it accelerated and reached 7.9% year-over-year. According to the NBU’s forecasts, inflation will rise to 9.4% by the end of 2026 (instead of the previously expected 7.5%) and then begin to decline, reaching 5% only in 2028.
In addition to revising its inflation forecast, the National Bank has also revised its expectations regarding gross domestic product growth. The slowdown in real GDP growth to 0.2% year-over-year in the first quarter was caused by attacks on energy infrastructure and logistics, as well as a cold winter and delays in foreign aid.
The NBU has lowered its economic growth forecast for 2026 to 1.3%. Growth is expected to recover in 2027–2028, when it will reach 2.8–3.7%. At this time, it is expected that the discount rate will remain at 15% until the second quarter of 2027. Should risks to price stability intensify, the NBU is prepared to take additional measures to curb inflation, including raising the discount rate.
Useful information: Keeping track of changes in the discount rate and inflation figures is important for making informed financial decisions, whether regarding loans, investments, or other financial transactions. This data helps assess the risks and opportunities that affect personal finances and business.
The information was provided by the source АнтиКредит.